AirVenture…Oshkosh 2020 has been cancelled along with virtually all major airshows through out the US due to Covid-19. With EAA’s CEO Jack Pelton’s announcement removing speculation that we might be able to enjoy the premiere airshow of the world, the question was posed on a major aviation website…would aviation aficionados consider attending a small, well organized, local airshow with proper precautions?
My answer is no. Why? Read on. Would I, or could I reconsider? Possibly. Why? Read on.
From a purely Covid-19 battle-plan perspective, I believe aggressive testing has got to be in place, affordable, readily available, and accurate to figure out any cohesive, intelligent, and effective strategy of doing anything regardless if its business or recreation pursuits. Without massive testing, it is pure unadulterated speculation to get any reasonable accurate infection numbers. The evidence is clear, those areas (nationally or globally) that have been the most thoroughly tested, have had lowest overall death rates. Plus, the earliest opportunity for careful, targeted opening of the local economies.
Testing at an autopsy has scientific value, but little planning value for economic business recovery protocols.
Testing seems to be presented as some sort of option reserved for those who might have symptoms, or given when they enter the emergency room. It will take some time for a vaccine. However, if you know who is infected, was infected, traced the infected movements, you could begin laying out a strategy for doing, in this case, an airshow. That strategy would be based on practical evidence vs estimates generated by computer models, or trying to sort out science through political arguments/debates which seems to dominate most Covid-19 information being presented by most mainstream media.
The new political football is whether the death numbers are accurate. Geez…100k+ dead in a matter of weeks and we are debating if one died of Covid-19 directly, or died of Covid-19 related complications as an argument for making decisions to loosen or tighten local, state, county, or national policies to, at the very least, have some sort of control over infection rates?
In the past, when fighting anything that threatened the US economy, safety of its citizens, and our daily lifestyle such as 9/11, which killed three thousand in one day, we did not debate a recovery strategy by first assigning an acceptable death rate because 12-61K die of the flu each year, depend on a bunch of computer models to determine the likelihood of another attack in other cities, and make future plans without finding out who the bad guys are, where they are currently at, and how we were going to determine the terrorist infection of the US population. We are losing on an average 1000+ people a day now for over two month, and still have very little idea who is, was, and not currently infected.
We can mobilize to build masks and ventilators, working feverishly towards a vaccine, but we are still struggling to even test 1% of the population going into the fourth month of this pandemic. And the largest portion tested have either died, were admitted to the hospital with complications, or those who have had some sort of symptoms. Sort of like going to a local AA meeting only to find out who, in the greater population, might be an alcoholic.
I would be happy to contemplate attending an airshow if I knew I was not infected, knew that I already contracted it and pose no threat to others, and knew that other attendees either already had it and are no threat, not infected, with those who are infected and contagious not allowed to attend. Massive, purposeful, available testing would provide that kind of useful information to me as a potential spectator or an exhibitor, plus the airshow sponsors including those performing. That is how we supply the US and global population the confidence needed to make a good decision. This also provides the confidence to look at our political and corporate leadership and evaluate their decision-making capabilities in light of evidence vs speculation.
Until then, everything we do, who we see, and where we go is simply a guess. That’s no way to live…suspecting everybody, but not really knowing if we got it, they got it, we are not infected, they are not infected, or we already had it, or find out after we are admitted to the hospital.
We are free to simply continue to do what is really not solving the problem, in many cases adding to the dilemma because we don’t know who is sick. Our present and past attempts provided by a one-size-fits-all approach was attempting to buy a little more precious time, to get possibly get a vaccine…maybe…hopefully before mid-2021. No data, no use of that data means we either keep on guessing or simply throw in the towel, and let nature takes its course.
Herd immunity by letting “nature takes its course”? What kind of nation, economy, and quality of life will be left after that culling? Pretty hard for me to be smart, if I don’t know if I am infected, who is infected, who is not, and who has already been other than quit working, stay at home, isolate myself, and hope to not die because I went to the store to buy groceries as we “let nature take its course”.
Experiencing a global economy collapse thru an uncontrolled pandemic makes no sense and certainly does not offer any hope of some sort of control or long term solution. There would be no economic recovery, just a new normal born out of chaos.
We can do better. We have to do better. Let’s get this economy open based on knowledge rather than emotionalism mixed with politics. The only way to get evidence based knowledge is by aggressive testing, multiple testing, and sustained testing over time. Once that is available for everyone in the US, then we can get this country back to work. Then we can enjoy our aviation passions without worry or suspicion. Then we will have true freedom rather than an illusion of freedom.
Right now, we have to suspect everyone while going about our daily life without knowing who is sick, was sick, and those yet to be infected. Is that really freedom? Or is that servitude bolstered by a lack of knowledge because we have failed to test, then use that data to open areas less affected and target more resources at areas ravaged by this pandemic.
Flag waving will not solve this pandemic.
Holdeman Aero 